These 2023 races could give Dems, GOP clues for 2024 White House run

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Most Americans won’t have a ballot this year, but the handful of upcoming state elections still hold national implications.

The statewide “off-year” contests in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi could hold valuable lessons for both parties ahead of the presidential election in 2024, experts say.

And Democrats also face a brutal Senate map in 2024 with incumbents facing reelection in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio, all of which former President Donald Trump easily won in 2020.

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The ability of moderate Democrats to hold deeply red territory will signal how voters are feeling ahead of next year’s presidential contest, said University of Kentucky political science profess Stephen Voss, who specializes in southern politics.

The three states with 2023 elections likewise may also be a blueprint for the GOP after failing to make the predicted “red wave” gains of last year’s midterm, Voss noted.

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Off-year races favor GOP

Political forecasters with Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia view Mississippi and Louisiana as “likely Republican.”

“With the kind of red lean of these states to the extent Democrats do well, it’s going to be because of candidate quality,” said Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

“As we saw last year, the Republicans ran a lot of a lot of candidates who were, quite frankly, crappy in quality and that hurt them.”

Kentucky is marquee race for Dems

Democrats have their best chance for a win in the Bluegrass State, where incumbent Andy Beshear defies political gravity amid a reelection bid currently ranked as “leans Democratic” by Sabato’s group.

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll released in January showed 61% of Kentuckians approve of their Democratic governor in a state Trump won by roughly 26% in 2020. He also leads all of the major GOP challengers in a mock matchup.

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Of the 12 GOP contenders who want to beat Beshear there is a top tier: Attorney General Daniel Cameron, former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft and Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles.

But that primary has gone negative early with Craft, the wife of a coal billionaire, painting Cameron, who was endorsed by Trump and leads the Republican field in the polls, as not doing enough to stand up to President Joe Biden.

Much of this race will be determined by who Kentucky Republicans nominate as much as how they win, Coleman said .

“What hurt the Republicans in Louisiana during 2019, and what could potentially hurt them again here in Kentucky, is a fractious primary,” he said.

GOP eager to flip Louisiana

Since a surprise win in 2015, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, who is term limited, has governed more to the right than other red state Democratic governors, such as when he signed a restrictive anti-abortion bill in 2019.

Voss, who taught political science in Louisiana, said this will be a harder battle for Democrats to keep in their column.

“More of the Republican voters in Louisiana are ideological and a devoted base,” he said. “They are not just people who vote Republican, but they are people who are more likely to think of themselves as Republicans and use party as a guide to their choice.”

The filing deadline isn’t until August, and the GOP field continues to swell with well-known names, such as Attorney General Jeff Landry; State Treasurer John Schroder; state Sen. Sharon Hewitt; state Rep. Richard Nelson; and Stephen Waguespack, a former chief of staff for Gov. Bobby Jindal.

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What complicates things is Louisiana uses what’s called a “jungle primary” where all candidates— regardless of party—run at the same time.

If no individual wins a majority, then it turns into a runoff between the two leading vote-getters, even if they’re both from the same party.

That’s why the most significant move of this contest thus far came this past week when Edwards appeared to clear the Democratic side of the field by endorsing former Louisiana Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who looks to be the lone high-profile Democrat running.

Mississippi race tightening?

Democrats are increasingly bullish about their chances in Mississippi, where GOP incumbent Tate Reeves is underwater after a January survey by Siena College found 57% of all voters said they wanted “someone else” for governor in 2023.

“We think there’s a real chance for an upset here,” said Democratic Governor’s Association spokesperson Sam Newton.

“We see it as Tate Reeves is an unpopular incumbent, and it’s very hard, statistically, to get rid of an incumbent governor, but we’ve done it before.”

This view was boosted after two consecutive polls shows Reeves is in a tight battle against Democrat Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.

But Mississippi hasn’t had a Democratic governor since 2004.

“Mississippi is a place where Democrats are desperately trying to create a mirage,” Republican Governor’s Association spokesperson Daniel Scarpinato told USA TODAY.

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