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You know they’re coming. The upsets happen every year. Heck, they’re the reason this event is called March Madness. Your mission, Mr. Phelps – or I guess it’s Mr. Hunt for you young kids –, is to pick the right ones and dominate your bracket.
Impossible? Well, we won’t lie – it’s often quite difficult. But some are more easy to spot than others.
It’s hard to pay attention to every team in college basketball throughout the long season that started way back in November when everybody was still focused on football. And, even when the gridiron action is done, the hardwood teams from big-name conferences snag most of the marquee TV slots. So a lot of you might not know about these so-called mid majors that are about to swoop in and grab their share of the spotlight, if only for a few days, or even the occasional power conference team that limps in as a double-digit seed but hits its stride at the right time. We’re here to help. Here are five candidates to consider strongly to pull off a first-round upset.
No. 12 Virginia Commonwealth over No. 5 Saint Mary’s
Start with the fact that this is a return to the Big Dance two years in the making for the Rams, forced to withdraw from the 2021 tournament due to multiple positive COVID tests. Additionally, VCU is a program accustomed to tournament success, achieving the First Four to Final Four feat in 2011. But most important, the Rams are simply a tough matchup for Saint Mary’s. Led by the duo of Adrian “Ace” Baldwin and Jalen DeLoach, VCU is the kind of high-tempo, high-pressure team capable of getting the more deliberate Gaels out of their comfort zone. Saint Mary’s is worthy of its high seed, as it was a year ago, but this draw spells trouble if the Gaels can’t match the athleticism of the Rams and are stretched out of their comfort zone.
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No. 13 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. No. 4 Tennessee
Even before losing point guard Zakai Zeigler to a season-ending injury, the Volunteers struggled mightily at times to run their half-court sets. Their defensive continuity has also been affected, which showed in their SEC tournament quarterfinal loss to Missouri. Enter the Ragin’ Cajuns, the Sun Belt champs with a variety of weapons like big man Jordan Brown (19.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and sharpshooter Greg Williams, a 40% marksman from three-point range. This looks like another chapter in the unfortunate postseason history of Tennessee coach Rick Barnes, who has had more than his share of disappointing finishes, including just one Sweet 16 appearance in the past four tournaments despite the Volunteers being no worse than a No. 5 seed.
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No. 12 College of Charleston vs. No. 5 San Diego State
This will be a popular choice for those who look at team records first. It is not without merit to be sure, as the Cougars enter on a 10-game winning streak. Before embarking on their Colonial Athletic Association campaign, they picked up non-league wins against Kent State (more on them below) and Virginia Tech. They also beat another Mountain West squad, Colorado State. This date with the Aztecs isn’t a gimme by any means, as San Diego State will be eager to do its part to erase the memory of the MWC’s winless tourney performance from a year ago and also notch its first tournament win since 2015. Charleston isn’t a particularly big team, but it is deep and might be able to maintain constant ball pressure throughout the game.
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No. 11 Providence vs. No. 6 Kentucky
Admittedly, the Friars were not playing their best ball as the season wound down, which is why they slid to an 11 seed and narrowly avoided the play-in round. They’ve dropped four of their last five, with the lone win in that stretch coming against Big East cellar-dweller Georgetown. But count on Bryce Hopkins to play with a little extra pep in his step as he leads Providence against the school where his collegiate career began. After struggling to earn minutes at Kentucky, the 6-7 winger has become a key cog for Ed Cooley’s team, leading the Friars in scoring (16.1) and rebounding (8.5). While the Wildcats appeared to figure some things out in the latter half of their SEC campaign, they can still struggle to create shots and make free throws, often a bad combination in March.
No. 13 Kent State vs. No. 4 Indiana
The Hoosiers didn’t handle the opposite side of the upset equation last year, surviving a First Four game before being trounced by Saint Mary’s. They have higher expectations this time around as Trayce Jackson-Davis is enjoying an All-America caliber season. But they, like most of their fellow Big Ten squads, have been inconsistent, particularly on the defensive end. The committee did them no favor matching them with the Golden Flashes. In addition to the aforementioned two-point loss to Charleston, Kent State also played Houston and Gonzaga to single-digit contests. Suffice to say then there will be no intimidation factor against Indiana. The driving force for the Flashes is former Duquesne transfer Sincere Carry, who returned to his native Ohio and is putting up 17.6 points and 4.9 assists a game and will be a tough matchup for the Indiana backcourt.
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