Xavier Roger
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As NFL offseason Wednesdays go, March 15, 2023, will go down as a fairly memorable one.
It had been circled on the calendar for some time as the official start of the new league year, all 32 teams enabled to sign new free agents and execute trades in renewed bids to make a run at Super Bowl 58 or, at minimum, turn an eye toward the future. And, sure, some of the moves had already been telegraphed or even stamped, Derek Carr’s relocation to the New Orleans Saints, for example.
But Wednesday may ultimately be best remembered because it was when Aaron Rodgers told the world he intends to break up with the Green Bay Packers … even if they haven’t officially asked for their keys and sweatshirt back.
Much to digest, but let’s crown some winners, shun some losers … and also admit that not all precincts have reported given the free agent and trade markets haven’t technically been open for 24 hours:
WINNERS
Russell Wilson: New head coach Sean Payton always made the offensive line (and protecting diminutive QB Drew Brees) a priority in New Orleans, and the Denver Broncos wasted little time bolstering the blocking in front of Russ coming off his worst NFL season. Enter RT Mike McGlinchey (5 years, $87.5 million) and G Ben Powers (4 years, $51.5 million) to upgrade a front five that will also get injured LT Garett Bolles back. Soon enough, it will be up to Wilson to execute the offense as Payton likely won’t be a fan of a 34-year-old playing jailbreak football given the level of protection he should now enjoy.
Bijan Robinson: Almost universally regarded as a top-10 talent and likely the only running back who will taken in the first round of the 2023 draft, there could be more viable openings for the University of Texas star – especially if the Los Angeles Chargers wind up trading Austin Ekeler. Even if they don’t, Robinson could be a reasonable Day 1 target for clubs like the Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills, all of their starting running back situations in flux.
New York Giants: They got a multiyear contract done with QB Daniel Jones, tagged RB Saquon Barkley, traded for TE Darren Waller and signed LB Bobby Okereke. Positive steps for a team trying to build off a surprise run to the 2022 divisional playoff round.
Quinnen Williams: Being affiliated with the New York Jets these days means biding your time. And the 25-year-old All-Pro defensive tackle will continue to wait on his inevitable payday while peers like Daron Payne, Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson and David Onyemata rake in their dough. Little chance Williams resets a positional market topped by Aaron Donald, but it’s probably only a matter of time before he supersedes Payne’s four-year, $90 million pact as the league’s best-paid interior D-lineman … behind Donald. (And probably a good sign that Williams’ brother, Jets LB Quincy Williams, re-signed for three more seasons.)
Nick Bosa: With Hargrave joining the San Francisco 49ers on a four-year, $84 million deal, could Bosa, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, make a run at breaking the league’s single-season record (22½)? Bosa had an NFL-best 18½ in 2022, while Hargrave’s 11 ranked second among NFC defensive tackles.
Trevon Diggs: Dallas’ Pro Bowl cornerback tends to be a gambler, one who makes his share of big plays … but also gives up more than a few, opposing quarterbacks enjoying a passer rating of nearly 100 against him in 2022. But with former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore joining Dallas’ secondary, Diggs might find himself covering fewer No. 1 receivers and perhaps in better spots to take more calculated risks for a defense adept at creating turnovers.
Miami Dolphins: All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey for a third-rounder and TE Hunter Long? The returns of RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson? QB Tua Tagovailoa purportedly healthy again – so much so that the Fins will activate his fifth-year option? Yes, please.
Sam Darnold: A one-year, $4.5 million deal is most certainly modest when you’re only five years removed from being the No. 3 pick of the draft. But working for Kyle Shanahan and the Niners could be a golden opportunity for Darnold to reboot his career. He immediately becomes this group’s veteran and should at least get a ton of reps in the offseason as youngsters Trey Lance (ankle) and Brock Purdy (elbow surgery) continue their recoveries – Purdy perhaps a candidate to start the 2023 season on injured reserve.
Chris Lindstrom: The Atlanta Falcons Pro Bowler landed a five-year, $105 million extension, making him the highest-paid guard ever while putting him into the left tackle tax bracket. And the guy next to Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary, was also-resigned, so Atlanta’s foundation up front looks to be in good shape.
Chicago Bears: They got a really nice haul – two first-round picks, two seconds and WR DJ Moore – from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft. GM Ryan Poles then went to work exhausting his league-high salary cap budget, importing established vets such as LBs Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, G Nate Davis and DE DeMarcus Walker. And Poles may not be done. Don’t be surprised if Da Bears make a serious playoff push in 2023.
LOSERS
Panthers’ next franchise QB: (And, no, we don’t mean Andy Dalton.) But with the Bears’ prized pick now in hand, owner David Tepper, GM Scott Fitterer and new HC Frank Reich will now have their choice among the likes of Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud or Florida’s Anthony Richardson atop the draft board. Whoever the choice – and with apologies to new RB Miles Sanders and TE Hayden Hurst – the rookie will be joining an offense largely devoid of weaponry in the short term, Moore and RB Christian McCaffrey now distant memories. And it’s likely going to be a while before Fitterer is in position again to draft a premier receiving prospect.
Tight end market: Some at the position are on the move, notably Waller (traded to the Giants) and Jonnu Smith (traded to the Falcons). But the market has been slower to develop for free agents like Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz and Austin Hooper. A likely driver is a draft that appears to feature one of the biggest bumper tight end crops in years.
Desmond Ridder: Most QB1s around the league aren’t going to feel overly threatened by the arrival of a guy like Taylor Heinicke, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Falcons potentially worth $20 million. But in Ridder’s case, the 2022 third-rounder may not have a ton of rope before he potentially loses the reins to a scrappy player who managed to go 12-12-1 in Washington while garnering widespread support from the locker room.
Davante Adams: Does he also wish he was leaving Las Vegas? A year ago, the All-Pro wideout departed Green Bay to play with close friend Carr … who’s now long gone. So is Waller, the kind of player who could help open the field for Adams. Following Carr’s exile, it was obvious Adams relished the idea of a reunion with former Packers teammate Rodgers – a sentiment the quarterback essentially reciprocated, if not explicitly, Wednesday while announcing his desire to play for the Jets. But as it stands, it appears the Raiders star has crapped out with his big bet on Sin City as the Raiders busily recast themselves as Patriots West with new QB Jimmy Garoppolo now dealing.
Running backs: Barkley, the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard and Raiders’ Josh Jacobs all got franchised … and all continue to await a long-term deal. But they probably shouldn’t complain (much) at the notion of making $10 million in 2023. After all, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman, Devin Singletary and Damien Harris are among those still unsigned. And Sanders, David Montgomery (Detroit Lions) and Jamaal Williams (Saints) weren’t exactly scooped right up, none realizing contracts that even averaged $6.5 million. Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be tailbacks.
Indianapolis Colts: It appears they’ve lost the opportunity to draft a top-end quarterback. And GM Chris Ballard watched a home-grown talent like Okereke leave the flock as Gilmore was traded. Just feels like Indy is receding further into irrelevance.
Kyler Murray: The Arizona Cardinals re-signed RT Kelvin Beachum – and make no mistake, he’s a good blocker and a better human as a multiple nominee for the Walter Payton Man of the Year award. He also recently said on a podcast that his quarterback should, “Be a man and grow up.” Seems like a good time to locker Murray and Beachum contiguously?
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach know a thing or two about offensive line play, so this is probably a touch premature. Nevertheless, the champs moved away from the starting tackles, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, who anchored a front that shut the Philadelphia Eagles out in the sack department in Super Bowl 57. The new plan seems to be installing Jawaan Taylor, who signed a four-year, $80 million contract, on Mahomes’ blind side. It should be noted Taylor was a decidedly average right tackle, where he’s played 99.5% of his NFL snaps, during four years with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Seems like quite the roll of the dice – particularly since Brown evidently agreed to significantly less while joining the Cincinnati Bengals – when you’re talking about safeguarding the league and Super Bowl MVP. But maybe someone else is coming? Laremy Tunsil? Maybe even Odell Beckham as an alternative prize?
Eagles’ NFC title defense: They were never going to be able to afford all of their free agents, and losing studs like Hargrave, Sanders and Edwards – with more to follow – is a blow. Yet CB James Bradberry, DE Brandon Graham, DT Fletcher Cox and, best of all, C Jason Kelce all decided to return, and it seems CB Darius Slay might wind up sticking around, too. DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson could also still come back. And don’t forget the NFC champs possess two first-round picks. They still need to get an extension done for QB Jalen Hurts, and Philly must adapt to two new coordinators. But it doesn’t seem like they’re coming back to the NFC pack as closely as they might have.
Lamar Jackson: Wednesday was the first day the Baltimore Ravens’ franchise-tagged superstar quarterback could negotiate with other teams. Will any engage? If another club does, will Jackson finally find the long-term, fully guaranteed offer he clearly seeks? If he does, will the Ravens simply match it? So much TBD.
Saints: In the short term, with Carr on board to stabilize a quarterback position that’s been in flux since Brees’ retirement, they probably project as the best team in the NFC South … for whatever that’s worth … in 2023. But it feels like the Falcons and Panthers aren’t far behind, both better positioned for longer-term sustainability. And the three-year pact New Orleans gave Jamaal Williams seems like a notable hedge in light of Alvin Kamara’s ongoing legal developments.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Almost undoubtedly the top receiver available this year, whether in free agency or the draft. Now we wait before learning if OBJ will find the $20 million per year offer he apparently wants and/or if he lands with a team capable of helping him win a second Super Bowl ring. We do know Rodgers would love to play with him. The same surely goes for Mahomes and any number of other passers.
Aaron Rodgers et al.: The four-time MVP revealed Wednesday on “The Pat McAfee Show” that he wants to play in 2023 – for the Jets, not Green Bay. Rodgers also said that he’s not impeding a trade, but that his longtime employers in Wisconsin actually are. There seems little doubt at this point that Rodgers is headed to New York, and that the Jets will soon be expected to end their league-worst 12-year playoff drought. The outlook for the (presumably) Jordan Love-led Pack will probably be tempered as the 2020 first-rounder is finally afforded the opportunity to start for a full season. And then there’s gray area: What must the Jets surrender for Rodgers? Who will sign up to join him with Gang Green? Will Zach Wilson ever be heard from him again? More to come on the fallout front, so stay tuned.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
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