Xavier Roger
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The United States will spend billions of dollars expanding its ability to produce nuclear-powered attack submarines as part of a landmark security deal with Australia and the United Kingdom that President Joe Biden will detail Monday.
The announcement, being made at a naval base in San Diego with the leaders of the three nations, comes 18 months after the creation of the AUKUS partnership to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The deal will provide Australia with nuclear-powered attack submarines, which can stay underwater longer than conventionally powered ones and are harder to detect.
Pending approval from Congress, the U.S. will sell at least three – and as many as five – Virginia-class submarines to Australia, once its navy is trained and ready to receive them.
In later years, the United Kingdom and Australia will build their own advanced-technology boats with U.S. help.
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To carry out that plan, the U.S. and Britain have to expand their submarine production capabilities and Australia must build theirs.
The question is whether the submarines can be built fast enough to be a sufficient deterrent to China, said Charles Edel, an expert on the Indo-Pacific region at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Navy is already behind in production for its own submarine needs because of backlogs, maintenance issues and disruptions from COVID, he said.
“This looks like it will be an extraordinarily ambitious program,” Edel said during a public discussion of the initiative Friday. “But for those ambitions to be realized the three governments need to match their resources to their aims, look to the budgets and the level of bipartisan support this initiative has in each of the three countries.”
The latest
- The U.S. is spending $4.6 billion over the next five years to increase submarine construction capacity and improve maintenance capabilities. More may be needed.
- Australia is making what the White House described as a “proportional financial investment” to accelerate production in the U.S., beyond what it will be paying for the submarines.
- The spending will support thousands of high-skill jobs in the United States, according to the White House.
- Congress last year approved an initial request to boost capacity. The Pentagon’s budget request for next year includes $543 million to bolster the industrial base and $207 million to ensure shipyard workers have the skills needed to work on them.
The agreement allows Australia access to U.S. nuclear technology previously available only to Great Britain, the closest American ally. Doing so draws both into closer cooperation with the U.S. in its competition with China.
What else is involved?
The three nations have already begun joint training exercises. Australian sailors will increasingly embed with U.S. and British forces and at nuclear power schools. Australians will also work in U.S. shipyards.
Once Australia has built up its ability to house U.S. and U.K. submarines, the nations will rotate forces there.
Submarines that combine the best technologies from all three countries will be built and deployed by both Australia and the U.K.
Britain is expected to produce its first AUKUS submarine in the late 2030s. Australia’s won’t be ready until the early 2040s.
Why is this happening?
China has taken what the Biden administration calls a series of provocative steps in recent years, including stepped up activities in the South China Sea. China, which has been building up its navy, says it wants to bring independent Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary.
In addition to China, the U.S. is also worried about threats in the region from North Korea and Russia.
Last month, the Pentagon announced an agreement with the Philippines for enhanced U.S. access to bases there. On Monday, the Pentagon announced plans to spend $6.1 billion on the Pacific Defense Initiative, which is intended to “strengthen deterrence against China,” according to budget documents.
Taken together, the moves represent the Pentagon’s efforts to shift its focus from wars in the Middle East to competition in the Pacific region with China.
How has China reacted?
China contends the nuclear submarine deal violates the spirit of an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology. Australia says it doesn’t because the submarines are only nuclear-powered, not armed with nuclear weapons.
Right now, just six countries – the United States, China, Russia, France, India and the U.K. – have nuclear submarines.
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